A Stochastic Mobility-Driven Spatially Explicit SEIQRD covid-19 Model with VOCs, Seasonality, and Vaccines

In this work, we extend our previously developed compartmental SEIQRD model for sars-cov-2 in Belgium. We introduce variants of concern, vaccines, and seasonality model, as their addition has proven necessary modelling transmission dynamics during the 2020-2021 covid-19 pandemic The is geographically stratified into eleven spatial patches (provinces), a telecommunication dataset provided by Belgium’s biggest operator used to incorporate interprovincial mobility. calibrate using daily number hospitalisations each province serological data. find adequately describes these data, but mobility was not obtain an accurate description further demonstrate how can be help policymakers decide on optimal timing release social restrictions.We that adding heterogeneity stratifying results more uncertain projections compared equivalent nation-level which both communicative advantages disadvantages. finally discuss impact imposing local or contact restrictions contain epidemic given lowering effective strategy than